It was always a given. Nawaz Sharif simply had to return to his country or become history, as pointed out earlier in this column. After all, he’s done it before; first being expelled by a sitting president on corruption charges, and then being exiled to Saudi Arabia by a military leader. He thinks he’s got the process down pat. This time around it could be rather unpleasantly different.
That Nawaz has chosen to return together with his daughter shows that the family has some certainty of being able to challenge the sentence of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB). As the redoubtable Dawn has pointed out, the former prime minister does have the option of surrendering before a court, instead of the police. He has the inherent right to challenge the verdict, who may then decide to suspend the sentence if – and only if – there is sufficient grounds to prove that the NAB’s decision is based on flimsy grounds. As noted earlier, the courts have not been able to prove that the Sharifs bought the Avenfield properties in London through the use of illegal assets. What has been established is that the Sharifs could not prove the source of their assets. But the clinching clause — that these assets were gained by misuse of his role as a public servant – has not been even remotely proven. The very fact that Nawaz was expelled from his post of prime minister on the flimsiest of grounds – that of having a work permit of a foreign country – itself shows that there is room for questioning the verdict. However, that will take time, and a long drawn out trial.
That option will not work for the ex-prime minister. He has to hit the ground running. He may seek bail, and probably be granted it. However getting bail alone is not enough. Remember that the ruling of April 2018 — which was supported by all five judges — bars him not just from holding office, but also from contesting elections. Nawaz needs a court to set aside the verdict, pending further investigations.
There is then the question of whom else Nawaz can depend on. Almost every single Pakistani leader has had to turn to foreign sources for assistance in either returning to their country, or to keep their office intact. Remember that Nawaz had to run to Washington after the Kargil misadventure, and that his eventual return from exile was mediated by the Saudis. The then quasi military government of General Pervez Musharraf was in no position to refuse the king his request, and was also in need of a ‘democratic exercise’. This time, the military is playing it smart. It is officially nowhere in the picture. All the arrests, gagging of the media etc. are being done by a legitimate caretaker government that has every right to ensure that elections – now barely ten days away – are held peacefully and without anarchy. China has now superseded everyone else as the main influence (though not aid giver) of the country, and Beijing doesn’t care whether Nawaz or anyone else is on the chair. The US still remains a major source of aid, but President Donald Trump’s reaction or non reaction) is unpredictable.
Finally, there is another side to this dramatic return. Nawaz is not returning just to lead the party. He is preparing the ground for his daughter Maryam Nawaz. A term in jail is almost a basic qualification for a future leader of Pakistan. The fact that se seems to have forged a document — which was rather cleverly found out by the JIT — will work heavily against her. But in the end it’s the sentiment that will count even in a court. Remember that the apex court had given her the benefit of doubt in April 2017. It could happen again. This is political Bollywood drama at its best, or worst depending on which side you’re rooting for. And one thing is assured. There are likely to be more sequels to this, than any Hollywood or Bollywood producer can ever think of. As they say, the jobs not over till the paper work is done. And there are a couple of several thousand reams of paper here – in calibri font or otherwise.
