Repeated references to the B.1.617.1 and 2 mutations of the SARS-Cov-2 virus as the Indian variants irritated the government enough to issue a statement effectively begging everyone not to refer to them as such (everyone, including various government departments, had no problem referring to a prior mutation as the UK variant). However, due to a lack of adequate viral genome sequencing, no one knows for sure whether these variants are to blame for the second wave of coronavirus disease that swept India in March and April. More aggressive sequencing, particularly in hotspots like Delhi and Bengaluru, could have shed light on this and added to our understanding of the pandemic’s current trajectory in India, which is critical for managing the present and future.
In the absence of this, we have uploads to the GISAID database from India. There’s no way of knowing if this is a representative sample, but B.1.617.2 was responsible for 46% of sequences uploaded to the database from India between March 1 and April 30, and B.1.617.1 for 19%. This means that two out of every three genomes uploaded to the database were variants. It’s no surprise that they’ve become the virus’s most prevalent strains in India.
It’s unclear how this data compares to that of India’s National Centre for Disease Control, who recently stated that of the 18,053 samples sequenced since December, 3,532 were so-called variants of concern, according to genome sequencing data from INSACOG (the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Consortia; a grouping of ten laboratories).
Scientists from India and the United Kingdom, including those at INSACOG, the COG-UK consortium, NCDC, Cambridge University, and the CSIR Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology, are adding to what we already know. The majority of 33 infections of vaccinated healthcare workers in a hospital were B.1.617.2, according to the study, though none of these infections were severe. The authors argue that the family of B.1.617 variants may have “a modest ability” to be resistant to antibodies induced by infections with the original virus Wuhan-1 D614G, which is worth repeating and highlighting. According to their hypothesis, 20-50 percent of the Indian population was infected with the original strain and had antibodies, but because the new variants were resistant to these antibodies, this may have “likely contributed to an epidemic wave” in the country (based on various sero- or antibody-surveys).
It didn’t help that the emergence of these variants coincided with a complete relaxation of restrictions on movement and activities across India, a collective lowering of the guard, and several super-spreader events. Neither did the country’s slow vaccination rate. Only about 140 million Indians have had at least one dose of the vaccine so far. This equates to 15% of the population being eligible.
The appearance of these variants coincided with a complete relaxation of restrictions on movement and activities across India, a collective lowering of the guard, and several super-spreader events, which didn’t help matters. Neither did the slow vaccination rate in the country. So far, approximately 140 million Indians have received at least one dose of the vaccine. This means that 15% of the population will be eligible.
Interestingly, despite the lack of evidence, some experts believe that keeping the gap between the first and second (or booster) shots of the Astra/Zeneca-Oxford vaccine (sold in India as Covishield) to eight weeks may help combat the variants. The UK has reduced the gap to 8 weeks to deal with a mini-surge in infections caused by the variants. The UK initially increased the gap to 12 weeks based on research that showed the vaccine’s efficacy increasing after that period (Spain has extended it to 16 weeks based on the same logic). Surprisingly, the UK’s decision to increase the gap to between 12 and 16 weeks coincided with India’s (from the previous 6-8 weeks). Then, given the vaccine supply shortage, India’s challenge is to vaccinate as many people as possible, and increasing the gap between doses of the country’s most widely used vaccine is one way to do so.
In the United Kingdom, 69 percent of those eligible for vaccinations have received at least one shot, with 38 percent having received both.
In India, 15% of people have had at least one dose, and 4.4 percent have had both.
