According to the ‘Sutra’ model, the third wave of Covid-19 in the country will be a “ripple” if there is no considerably faster-spreading mutant. If such a faster-spreading mutant exists, the third wave will be “similar to the first,” according to the Sutra study.
The scientists behind the ‘Sutra Model’ were formerly members of an expert group established by the Indian government’s Department of Science and Technology.
Last year, three members of this former government group devised the ‘Sutra Model,’ which has since been used to make mathematical forecasts on the course of the Covid cases. This is the ‘Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach’ (Sutra) to study the trajectory of the pandemic.
The researchers have presented three likely scenarios amid concerns of the third wave of covid-19.
1. The optimistic one: Where we assume that life goes back to normal by August, and there is no new mutant.
2. The intermediate one: Where we assume that vaccination is 20 per cent less effective in addition to optimistic scenario assumptions.
3. The pessimistic one: This has one assumption different from intermediate one: a new, 25 per cent more infectious mutant spreads in August (it is not Delta Plus, which is not more infectious than delta).
“All of the above scenarios will be invalid if there is an immunity-escape mutant,” the Sutra model states.
The graphs for the three scenarios were discussed by the IIT lecturer using a chart. The blue graph represents real data, the orange curve represents model predictions through May, and the dotted curves represent three possibilities shown starting in June.
Professor Maninder Agarwal stated that there is little difference between optimistic and moderate scenarios, implying that improvements in vaccination effectiveness have little influence. “As illustrated by the purple curve, a faster-spreading mutant has a greater influence. This isn’t even close to the second wave “explained the professor.
“So the bottom line is: if there is no significantly faster spreading mutant, third wave will be a ripple. And if there is such a mutant, third wave will be comparable to first one. However, if there is an immunity-escape mutant, all the above scenarios will be invalid!,” he added.
The analysis took a long time to complete, according to the IIT Kanpur professor, for three reasons. “First, in the restored population, there is a loss of immunity. The second type of immunity is that which is induced by vaccination. Each of these two must be forecasted in the future. Finally, how do you combine the two into the model? “he stated
Both may be included by adjusting the contact rate and reach parameters appropriately. So there’s the third one taken care of, he added, adding that the first two required more in-depth examination.
