According to the New York Times database, the seven-day average of new deaths in the United States was 610 on May 16. The average number of new cases per week was 33,041. This equates to a Case Fatality Rate of 1.8 percent (recorded deaths/reported cases).
On March 16, the corresponding numbers were 1,306 and 54,949, for a CFR of 2.4 percent.
Prior to that time, the ratio fluctuated. For example, these numbers were 3,160 and 146,550 on February 1 for a CFR of 2.15 percent, and 3,189 and 254,002 on January 9 for a CFR of 1.25 percent.
Most experts believe that this number will drop sharply in the coming weeks, barring any unfortunate accidents caused by the US CDC’s recent mask guidelines (many of the deaths being recorded now, they point out, are of people ailing for some time). Indeed, the seven-day average of hospitalizations was around 36,000 last week, according to the NYT database, a level last seen in September 2020. The overall CFR in the United States is around 1.8 percent, and the ratio is expected to drop below that soon.
It isn’t just the United States. On May 16, the seven-day average of new cases in the United Kingdom was 2,274. (again, according to the NYT database). The average number of deaths per week was 11. A CFR of 0.48 percent is calculated as a result of this. This must be weighed against the UK’s overall CFR of 2.9 percent. The corresponding numbers on February 1 were 18,607 and 406, resulting in a CFR of 2.18 percent. As of last week, the UK government reported that fewer than 1,000 people were in hospital due to Covid-19, with 129 of them on ventilators.
In the United Kingdom, 59 percent of those who were eligible received one dose of the vaccine, while 38 percent received both. In the United States, 61.1 percent of adults (aged 16 and up) have received at least one dose of the vaccine, with 46 percent receiving both.
In the context of India’s own good news – a 16 percent drop in the weekly average of new infections for the seven days ending Sunday, as well as a drop in active cases, that lengthy preamble is critical. India, for example, reported 281,911 new cases on Sunday, the lowest number in 27 days, though the number could have been skewed downward by the three-day weekend.
