After nearly three months of steady decline, daily Covid-19 infections in India have begun to rise again, fueled in part by the high volume of daily cases in states like Kerala, where the outbreak is rapidly spreading. The seven-day average of daily infections in two more states, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, has risen by more than 75% from the lows seen after the brutal second wave of infections.
The seven-day average of new infections, which represents the country’s Covid-19 case curve, fell to a low of 37,975 per day for the week ending July 22, but has since gradually risen to 40,710 per day for the week ending August 3.
While this may appear to be a minor increase in cases in absolute terms, each time such a reversal has occurred in India’s outbreak, it has signalled a critical turning point in the cycle.
For the first time since May 10 — when the second wave peaked — the week-on-week change in the case curve has been above zero for the past six days (see chart). A positive change in this number indicates that the outbreak is spreading, while a value below 0 percent indicates that the outbreak is contracting. On February 17, the statistical point from which India’s second wave began, this number rose above 0% for the first time.
Meanwhile, the national average positivity rate – an important metric that indicates the spread of infection – has begun to slowly rise, rising from 2% to 2.4 percent in the last two weeks.
To be sure, the rise in cases and positivity rates (at least at the national level) has been slow, but it is cause for concern because it comes at a time when restrictions on a variety of economic and social activities have been loosened, and people and governments have become complacent.
Kerala continues to be the epicentre of the outbreak in the country, with 20,337 new cases reported every day in the last week, accounting for nearly half of all new infections in the country. However, there are many other areas where infection levels are high or where cases are on the rise again. A large number of cases continue to be reported in the country’s north-eastern states. To be sure, cases in the region have peaked, with cases declining in three of the region’s largest outbreak centres, Mizoram, Manipur, and Meghalaya.
Two more states, on the other hand, appear to be occupying their territory. The seven-day average of new cases in both Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh has increased by 76 percent since the second wave’s peak.
In Himachal, the case trajectory fell to a low of 95 new infections per day on average for the week ending June 23, but has since begun to rise again, with a current total of 167.
In Uttarakhand, the numbers have increased from 34 to 60 in the same time period. In recent weeks, both states have seen a massive influx of tourists as cases across the country have abated.
Lav Agarwal, joint secretary of the Union health ministry, said it was too early to say the second wave had ended during Tuesday’s Covid-19 media briefing. He claims that if the R-number is greater than one, the case trajectory is increasing and must be controlled.
