India needs to administer 1.88 billion doses in total to reach its goal of vaccinating its entire adult population by the end of 2021, with 1.67 billion doses (89 percent) still to be administered. This means that starting in June, the country must deliver 238 million doses per month or risk falling behind schedule.
From June to December, India will need to administer 2.51 billion doses, or 359 million doses per month, to vaccinate everyone, including those under the age of 18, by the end of 2021.
In the race for vaccination, as in a cricket run chase, a slower run rate at the start of an innings necessitates slogging as the innings progresses. This concept could be crucial in helping India meet its goal, as if it falls behind in the first few months, the year-end target will become increasingly difficult to meet.
Until May 31, the country had administered over 215 million doses, making it the third-largest country in terms of total doses delivered (behind only China and the US).
The Required Rate
India plans to vaccinate its entire eligible population by December, according to Union Minister Prakash Javadekar’s press conference on Friday. India appears to be starting this chase at a slower pace next month, with only 120 million doses likely to be available, as opposed to the 238 million doses per month required from June onwards. This means that starting in July, the required rate for adult vaccination will be 258 million doses per month, and 398 million doses per month for universal vaccination.
What are the possibilities for the future? In May, 79.4 million doses were available, with 120 million doses expected in June. This equates to a supply increase of 51% month over month. If India can repeat this success in the coming months, 181 million doses will be distributed in July, 274 million in August, 414 million in September, and 626 million in October.
To be sure, the government said on Tuesday that in July and August, it may have as many as 10 million doses available per day (or 300 million per month) – more than twice the highest single-day doses ever administered in India (around 5 million). It’s unclear how the government came up with this figure.
Even at a rate of 5 million doses per day, it will take until April 27 of next year to cover adults in the country, and until October 2022 to cover the entire population.
As previously stated, India needs to increase monthly supply to 274 million by August, or daily doses to 9.13 million, to vaccinate all adults by December; and it needs to increase monthly supply to 626 million by October, or daily doses to 20.9 million, to vaccinate everyone by December.
